TEMPORAL CHARACTERIZATION OF STREET ROBBERIES CONTRASTING PRE-PANDEMIC AND PANDEMIC CONTEXTS

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.31060/rbsp.2026.v20.n2.2081

Keywords:

Time series, Street robberies, Municipalities of Minas Gerais (Brazil), COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract

Understanding the dynamics of crime occurrences is crucial for more effective public security policies. This multidisciplinary study aimed at the temporal characterization of street robberies, under both pre-pandemic and pandemic contexts. Data from the Military Police of MG from 8 cities were consolidated into different time series: by hour, by day, every 10 days, and by month. Statistical techniques used were: spectral frequency analysis, autocorrelations, and decompositions. A 64% average decrease in this type of crime during the pandemic was observed. Evidence of a stationary regime in the pandemic series was found, implying a greater randomness in occurrences. Regardless of being pre or pandemic, and contrary to common sense, the only seasonality detected was between day/night, with the days of the week, the beginning or end of the month, or the months of the year being irrelevant. This study offers various insights for a better understanding of the temporal patterns of crimes.

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Author Biographies

Renato Figueiredo Frade, Corpo de Bombeiros Militar de Minas Gerais

Bachelor’s degree in Computer Engineering from the Federal University of Itajubá (UNIFEI). Master’s degree in Computer Science and Technology (UNIFEI). Specialist soldier and communications developer with the Minas Gerais Military Fire Department (CBMMG).

Eric Fernandes de Mello Araújo, Computer Science Department/Calvin University (MI), USA.

Bachelor of Science in Computer Science from the Federal University of Viçosa (UFV). Master of Science in Computer Science from the Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG). Ph.D. in Computer Science from Vrije Universiteit, Netherlands. Associate Professor, Calvin University, USA. Researcher in Behavioral Modeling and Computational Sociology.

João Paulo Roquim Romanelli, Universidade Federal de Itajubá

Bachelor of Science in Mathematics from the Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG). Master of Science in Mathematics (UFMG). Ph.D. in Mathematics from the Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro (PUC-RJ). Associate Professor at the Federal University of Itajubá (UNIFEI). Researcher in Numerical Methods for Ordinary Differential Equations and Machine Learning.

Carlos Henrique da Silveira, Universidade Federal de Itajubá

Bachelor of Science in Computer Science from the Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG). Ph.D. in Bioinformatics (UFMG). Full Professor at the Federal University of Itajubá (UNIFEI). Coordinator of the Interdisciplinary Group on Simulation and Computational Intelligence (INSILICO). Researcher in Data Science, Network Science, and Artificial Intelligence.

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Published

2026-06-01

How to Cite

FIGUEIREDO FRADE, Renato; FERNANDES DE MELLO ARAÚJO, Eric; PAULO ROQUIM ROMANELLI, João; HENRIQUE DA SILVEIRA, Carlos. TEMPORAL CHARACTERIZATION OF STREET ROBBERIES CONTRASTING PRE-PANDEMIC AND PANDEMIC CONTEXTS. Revista Brasileira de Segurança Pública, [S. l.], v. 20, n. 2, p. 54–81, 2026. DOI: 10.31060/rbsp.2026.v20.n2.2081. Disponível em: https://revista.forumseguranca.org.br/rbsp/article/view/2081. Acesso em: 1 jun. 2026.

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Vol. 20 No. 2 (2026): Revista Brasileira de Segurança Pública 39

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