PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS OF ROBBERIES TARGETING PUBLIC TRANSPORT USERS IN THE CITY OF MANAUS-AM

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.31060/rbsp.2026.v20.n2.2139

Keywords:

Bus thef, Logistic regression, Interior of the bus, Bus stop

Abstract

The intensification of the crime of robbery in buses has caused fear and insecurity for those users who use this type of mode for displacement in the urban areas of Brazilian cities. In this study, we sought to analyze the robberies in two different places where the users were at the time of the crime, whether inside the bus or at any bus stop. We applied the multiple logistic regression method to explain the chances of robbery occurrences inside the public transport in Manaus-AM in the year 2020, given the means employed, zone, shift, day of the week, sex and age of the victims. The model pointed out that the chances of robbery of those who are inside the bus are 5.8 times higher in relation to the users who are at some bus stop. The conclusion is the necessary urgency of the State to exercise its regulatory authority over these crimes to guarantee the security of public transport in order to protect the population, especially the poorest.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

Author Biographies

Cleide Lana Carneiro de Moraes, Universidade do Estado Do Amazonas

Cleide Lana Carneiro de Moraes holds a bachelor’s degree in Statistics, a master’s degree in Public Safety, Citizenship, and Human Rights, and a master’s degree in Climate and Environment. She is currently a Ph.D. candidate in Analysis, Modeling, and Management of Environmental Systems at the Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG), with experience in statistical modeling and data analysis in the field of public safety.

Antonio Gelson de Oliveira Nascimento, Universidade do Estado do Amazonas

Antonio Gelson de Oliveira Nascimento holds a Ph.D. in Demography from CEDEPLAR/UFMG. Professor of Applied Statistics and Coordinator of the Graduate Program in Public Safety, Citizenship, and Human Rights (PPGSP) at the State University of Amazonas (UEA). Leader of the Group for Applied Studies and Research in Public Safety (GEPAS/UEA).

References

AKAIKE, Hirotugu. A new look at statistical model identification. IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control, v. 19, n. 6, p. 716–722, 1974. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1109/TAC.1974.1100705

ANDRESEN, Martin A.; MALLESON, Nick. Crime seasonality and its variations across space. Applied Geography, v. 43, p. 25–35, 2013. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2013.06.007

BECKER, Gary S. Crime and punishment: an economic approach. Journal of Political Economy, v. 76, n. 2, p. 169–217, 1968. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1086/259394

BERKSON, Joseph. Application of the logistic function to bio-assay. Journal of the American Statistical Association, v. 39, n. 227, p. 357–365, 1944. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1944.10500699

BRANTINGHAM, Paul J.; BRANTINGHAM, Patricia L. Environmental criminology. Long Grove: Waveland Press, 1993.

BRASIL. Lei nº 12.587, de 3 de janeiro de 2012. Institui as diretrizes da Política Nacional de Mobilidade Urbana. Diário Oficial da União: seção 1, Brasília, DF, 4 jan. 2012. Disponível em: https://www.planalto.gov.br/ccivil_03/_ato2011-2014/2012/lei/l12587.htm. Acesso em: 30 abr. 2021.

BRICEÑO-LEÓN, Roberto. Quatro modelos de integração de técnicas qualitativas e quantitativas de investigação nas ciências sociais. In: GOLDENBERG, Paulete; MARSIGLIA, Regina Maria Giffoni; GOMES, Maria Helena de A. (org.). O Clássico e o Novo: tendências, objetos e abordagens em ciências sociais e saúde. Rio de Janeiro: Fiocruz, 2003. p. 157–183. DOI: https://doi.org/10.7476/9788575412510.0011

CANDOTTI, Fábio Magalhães; PINHEIRO, Israel; ALVES, Jander Batista. Dispositivos de segurança e justiça de rua: outras questões sobre assaltos, vigilantismos e linchamentos. Dilemas, Rio de Janeiro, v. 12, n. 3, p. 647–673, set./dez. 2019.

CECCATO, Vania; LOUKAITOU-SIDERIS, Anastasia. Transit crime and sexual violence in cities: international evidence and prevention. New York: Routledge, 2020. DOI: https://doi.org/10.4324/9780429290244

COHEN, Lawrence E.; FELSON, Marcus. Social change and crime rate trends: a routine activity approach. American Sociological Review, v. 44, n. 4, p. 588–608, 1979. DOI: 10.2307/2094589. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/2094589

COPES, Heith; HOCHSTETLER, Andy; CHERBONNEAU, Michael. Getting the upper hand: scripts for managing victim resistance in carjackings. Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, v. 49, n. 2, p. 249–268, 2012. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/0022427810397949

COX, David R. The analysis of binary data. London: Methuen, 1970.

CRENSHAW, Kimberlé. Mapping the margins: intersectionality, identity politics, and violence against women of color. Stanford Law Review, v. 43, n. 6, p. 1241–1299, 1991. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/1229039

DYKE, George V.; PATTERSON, H. D. Analysis of factorial arrangements when the data are proportions. Biometrics, v. 8, n. 1, p. 1–12, 1952. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/3001521

FYHRI, Aaslak; BACKER-GRØNDAHL, Agathe. Personality and risk perception in transport. Accident Analysis & Prevention, v. 49, p. 470–475, 2012. DOI: 10.1016/j.aap.2012.03.017. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2012.03.017

GOMES, Carlos Alberto da Costa. Espaço urbano e criminalidade: uma breve visão do problema. Revista de Desenvolvimento Econômico, Salvador, v. 7, n. 11, p. 57–68, 2005.

GONZALEZ, Leandro de Azevedo. Regressão logística e suas aplicações. 2018. Monografia (Bacharelado em Ciência da Computação) – Centro de Ciências Exatas e Tecnológicas, Universidade Federal do Maranhão, São Luís, 2018.

HART, Timothy C.; MIETHE, Terance D. Street robbery and public bus stops: a case study of activity nodes and situational risk. Security Journal, v. 27, n. 2, p. 180–193, 2014. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/sj.2014.5

HUNT, Joel. From crime mapping to crime forecasting: the evolution of place-based policing. National Institute of Justice Journal, n. 281, 2019.

INSTITUTO BRASILEIRO DE GEOGRAFIA E ESTATÍSTICA (IBGE). Censo Demográfico 2022: Panorama de Manaus. Rio de Janeiro: IBGE, 2022.

LYNCH, Kevin. The image of the city. Cambridge: MIT Press, 1960.

MANAUS (AM). Prefeitura Municipal. Plano de Mobilidade Urbana de Manaus (PlanMob-Manaus). Manaus: Prefeitura de Manaus, 2015.

MANAUS (AM). Câmara Municipal. Projeto de Lei nº 262/2021. Dispõe sobre a implantação do “Botão do Pânico” nos veículos do transporte público coletivo no município de Manaus. Manaus, 2021.

NELDER, John Ashworth; WEDDERBURN, Robert William Maclagan. Generalized linear models. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. v. 135, n. 3, p. 370–384, 1972. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/2344614

PAES-MACHADO, Eduardo; INOUE, Silvia. Perception of fear and coercive management of victims of intercity bus robberies. Criminology & Criminal Justice, v. 17, n. 1, p. 22–39, 2017. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/1748895816656032

PAULA, Gilberto Alvarenga. Modelos de Regressão: com apoio computacional. São Paulo: IME-USP, 2004.

PEARLSTEIN, Adele; WACHS, Martin. Crime in public transit systems: an environmental design perspective. Transportation, v. 11, n. 3, p. 277–297, 1982. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00172653

RASCH, Georg. Probabilistic models for some intelligence and attainment tests. Copenhagen: Danish Institute for Educational Research, 1960.

RAWLINGS, John, PANTULA, Sastry, David. Applied Regression Analysis: a research tool. New York: Springer, 1998. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/b98890

SASSEN, Saskia. Expulsions: brutality and complexity in the global economy. Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 2014. DOI: https://doi.org/10.4159/9780674369818

de Sustentável, v. 5, n. 2, p. 45-60, 2019. DOI: https://doi.org/10.26668/IndexLawJournals/2525-9865/2019.v5i2.5941

SOARES, F. V. Mobilidade Urbana e Justiça Social: o Transporte Público como Fator de Inclusão. Revista Brasileira de Mobilidade Sustentável, v. 5, n. 2, p. 45-60, 2019.

SONG, Justin; ANDRESEN, Martin; BRANTINGHAM, Patricia; SPICER, Valerie. Crime on the edges: patterns of crime and land use change. Cartography and Geographic Information Science, v. 44, n. 1, p. 51–61, 2017. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/15230406.2015.1089188

SOUSA, Daiane Castro et al. Violência em transporte público: uma abordagem baseada em análise espacial. Revista de Saúde Pública, v. 51, 2017. DOI: https://doi.org/10.11606/S1518-8787.2017051007085

STREHL, Elaine Görgen; MOYANO, Carlos Alberto Mello; ANGNES, Derli Luís. Atributos qualitativos e fatores de satisfação com o transporte público urbano por ônibus. Contextus – Revista Contemporânea de Economia e Gestão, v. 17, n. 1, p. 98–126, 2019. DOI: https://doi.org/10.19094/contextus.v17i1.33530

TORRES-REYNA, Oscar. Logit, probit and multinomial logit models in R. 2014.

VENTURA, Iolanda et al. Mobilidade urbana e transporte público em Manaus. LabF5 (Medium), 5 jul. 2017.

Published

2026-06-01

How to Cite

MORAES, Cleide Lana Carneiro de; NASCIMENTO, Antonio Gelson de Oliveira. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS OF ROBBERIES TARGETING PUBLIC TRANSPORT USERS IN THE CITY OF MANAUS-AM. Revista Brasileira de Segurança Pública, [S. l.], v. 20, n. 2, p. 148–167, 2026. DOI: 10.31060/rbsp.2026.v20.n2.2139. Disponível em: https://revista.forumseguranca.org.br/rbsp/article/view/2139. Acesso em: 1 jun. 2026.